So, continuing on my premise that the current premiership table is a total sham as ManU have yet to play a team in the top half, I have completed my odds adjusted premiership table... well at least I did the numbers for Arsenal and United for the first 7 games! The takeaways are eye opening and not so obvious, and I hope you'll be interested!

But first lets just recap: every game has odds for the win, draw or loss of a team. For example the next game for Arsenal after the International break is Watford away. Which according to the Betfair exchange has the following mid market odds; Waterford win at 17.4%; Draw at 22.5% & Arsenal win at 60.2%! Now if you notice they add up to more than 100%, that's the bookies juice so to speak, but the Betfair exchange total is pretty efficient.
Multiplying these percentages by the points outcome, we arrive at an expected Arsenal points haul of 2.03 - lets call it 2 points! So, if we win we will have picked up 1 point more than expected, etc...

Using the historic odds of the games played so far from and with a little bit of spreadsheet wizardry, I worked out that so far Arsenal have an expected points tally of 15.6 versus an actual tally of 13. So, in aggregate, we've lost a game we shouldn't have! Now the 4 - 0 thrashing at Anfield feels like that game, but one surprising take away for me is the expected points tally at Anfield was actually just 1.17 i.e. we only dropped 1.17 points versus the bookies expectation at Liverpool. The real damage was done at Stoke, where the bookies only assigned Stoke a 23.3% chance of a win, so there unlikely victory cost us a whopping 1.87 points from our expected total! First takeaway, the Stoke loss was super significant, and maybe explains in part why we were so poor at Anfield?

Now switching to United, despite not playing any top teams, their expected points tally is 16.5, which they have outperformed by a whopping 2.5 points at 19 points! So even taking account of the weaker teams they've played, they have really outperformed. Goddamit!! SO it seems Fellaini adjusted is just as annoying as the brutish clown like man in real life!

One striking take away from their results to date, is the big gain they had despite all the 4 - 0 wins was actually the 1 - 0 win they bagged away to Southampton, picking up an extra 1.08 points versus the expected points tally!

So what now... well, focus for Arsenal has to be on those expected 2 points away at Watford... a win there and we start clawing our way back up the adjusted premiership table, and the real table for that matter! Next on my to do list is the odds adjusted table for the top 6! And are there any more insights we can learn... until then.